Kentucky Derby 2026
- 2 hours ago
- 12 min read
Between The Ears: A Psychological Snapshot
Insights from the Derby Outlook Podcast with Jason Beem: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0XeZKRbVY7xbd4IU34VpN4?si=-3mLRbXISQGHNkXUInyM_w
In every Kentucky Derby, the conversation begins with speed, pedigree, and past performances.
But beneath the surface… there is something else shaping the outcome.
A quieter force.
An invisible structure.
A psychological rhythm that determines not just how fast a horse runs, but how they experience the race itself.
These notes are drawn from my recent appearance on the TwinSpires Derby Outlook Podcast with Jason Beem, where we explored a select group of contenders through a different lens, one rooted in Herd Dynamics and Sensory Soundness.
Each “Between The Ears” snapshot is designed to give you a feel for the horse behind the numbers:
• How they process competitive stress
• How they interact within the herd
• Where they gain efficiency… or lose it
• And what to watch for when the race begins to unfold
This work is not about replacing traditional handicapping… it’s about enhancing it. Because on Derby Day, when the field compresses, the noise builds, and the pressure peaks, the race is often decided in the space you cannot see.
So Happy
Between The Ears
So Happy is a colt who has quietly crossed a very important line in his development… he’s no longer reacting to the race, he’s beginning to organize it.
What stands out with him is the balance. His awareness of the environment and his competitive drive are now working together instead of against each other. He can sit inside the herd, mentally draft, conserve energy… and still stay tactically engaged. That’s a big step at this level.
He’s not a horse that needs to announce himself early. He applies pressure quietly… and when he moves, it feels purposeful, like he’s already decided what’s going to happen before it unfolds.
The strength is that internal composure and efficiency. He doesn’t carry stress forward, and he’s learning how to distribute his energy across the race instead of spending it all in one moment.
The question, especially in a race like the Derby, is multi-phase engagement. This isn’t one battle, it’s several. And he’ll need to stay mentally available through each of those layers as the race evolves.
One thing to watch early; he doesn’t want to get pulled into a head-to-head too soon, especially with a high-energy horse nearby. If he stays in his rhythm and avoids that early emotional spike, he becomes very dangerous late.
And the most interesting part… he hasn’t peaked. He’s still discovering what he is.
So you’re not looking at a finished product, you’re looking at a horse learning, in real time, how to manage his own power.
And in a race like the Kentucky Derby… that can be a very dangerous thing.
Strengths
• Elite emotional composure—processes pressure without carrying stress forward
• High-level balance between awareness (GHD) and competitive drive (IHD)
• Efficient energy distribution—does not overspend early
• Ability to mentally draft within the herd while staying tactically engaged
• Purposeful mover—advances with intent rather than reaction
• Still developing upward—has not yet reached peak expression
Vulnerabilities
• Multi-phase race demands—must sustain mental clarity across several competitive waves
• Risk of early emotional engagement if drawn into head-to-head pressure
• Still evolving—may encounter a new psychological layer under Derby intensity
• Needs to maintain rhythm early; disruption can delay full expression
Watch For
• Early Race: Does he stay relaxed and in rhythm, or get pulled into early engagement?
• Backstretch Positioning: Is he mentally “drafting” comfortably within the herd or working too hard?• Mid-Race Transitions: Smooth, quiet movement forward = high efficiency; urgency = energy leak• Top of the Stretch: If he’s still composed and within himself, he becomes a serious late threat
Kerry’s Quotes
• “He’s becoming a quiet, relentless presence—you don’t notice him until it’s too late.”• “Elite horses don’t just run fast… they think fast. He’s starting to do both.”• “This is a horse that doesn’t need to be made competitive—he’s learning how to manage being competitive.”
Further Ado
Between The Ears
Further Ado is a fast-cycling, high-rev colt, everything about him runs just a touch on the edge.
He’s got real grit, real willingness… this is a horse that wants to compete. You can feel that. He’s not backing away from anything, and tactically he can put himself in the race early and stay engaged.
But what’s interesting is how quickly his mind is working. Sometimes it’s almost too fast… like his sensory system is just barely keeping up with the space in front of him. And when that happens, you’ll see little moments where his spatial awareness slips just enough to affect his physical efficiency.
That’s where he can get into trouble, he ends up giving you six when five would do. He tries harder than he needs to, and now he’s not just running against the field… he’s running against himself.
To his credit, he fights through it. He’s tough. He’s got stamina. But that kind of effort comes at a cost, especially in a race like the Derby where the pressure doesn’t let up.
Where he’s most dangerous is when he’s pointed straight, clean air in front of him—then he’s a machine. But once you get into tight corners, compact herd pressure… that’s where you might see him start to leak a little emotional energy, maybe even float off that line.
This is a ride-dependent horse. He’s going to need a jockey with real intention, someone who can hold his rhythm together without over-asking.
Because he’s always hovering right on that mental edge… and if it stays together, he’s a player.
If it doesn’t… things can unravel just enough to cost him late.
Strengths
• High competitive drive—willing, gritty, and fully engaged in the fight
• Tactical speed—can establish position and stay connected to the race flow
• Strong stamina and resilience—fights through pressure rather than backing off
• Capable of powerful, efficient motion when in clean air
• Mentally tough—recovers and continues despite internal inefficiencies
Vulnerabilities
• Overactive mental cycle—sensory system can outrun its own processing ability
• Efficiency loss under pressure—gives more energy than required (“6 for 5”)
• Susceptible to emotional energy leaks in tight, compact herd dynamics
• Spatial awareness dips in high-pressure moments, affecting physical fluency
• Risk of running against himself—internal inefficiency adds to external challenge
• Highly ride-dependent—mismanagement amplifies inefficiencies
Watch For
• Early Race: Is he relaxed within himself, or already over-engaged and working too hard?
• First Turn / Tight Corners: Any drifting, floating, or lack of straightness signals sensory overload
• Mid-Race Efficiency: Smooth, rhythmic motion = controlled energy; choppy effort = overspending
• Top of the Stretch: If he still has something left after the early effort, he’s dangerous—if not, the cost shows up late
• “He’s the kind of horse that runs hard… sometimes a little too hard.”
• “You love the grit—but you worry about the cost of it.”
• “He doesn’t lack ability… he just has to stay within himself.”
Renegade
Between The Ears
Renegade is a true herd reader… this is a colt who lets the race come to him before he ever inserts himself into it.
He’s got a very strong Group Herd Dynamic, he’ll sit back, conserve energy, and almost ghost through the chaos early. He’s not in a hurry… he’s watching, organizing, letting the herd do the work for him.
And then when he decides to go there’s a real burst there. His Independent drive is powerful, and when it clicks, he can eat up ground in a hurry.
But the key with him is the transition.
There’s a moment where he has to shift from that patient, aware state… into full competitive drive. And sometimes, he’s got so much energy there that it doesn’t come out clean. He can get a little stuck in that gear change, just for a few strides, and that’s where his physical efficiency dips and his awareness lags behind his movement.
In a race like the Derby, that moment matters. Because if that happens in traffic, now you’re in a crowded room with nowhere to go… and suddenly he’s playing catch-up.
Now, once he regathers himself, he’s dangerous again. Beautiful mover, covers ground, and he’ll come after you. This is not a horse you want hunting you late.
But he does his best work when he’s got space, especially if he can sweep outside, find a clear lane, and fully engage that drive without interruption.
If you want to compete with him, you don’t let him settle into that rhythm. You make the hunter the hunted… keep him just off-balance enough that his focus splits, because when that happens, his body can get ahead of his mind.
But overall, this is a savvy, intelligent colt. He knows what he’s doing out there.
And if he gets the right trip… he’s absolutely one you have to deal with late.
Strengths
• Elite herd awareness—reads and utilizes race flow with high-level GHD
• Exceptional energy conservation early—“ghosts” through chaos without overspending
• Powerful late IHD burst—can rapidly close ground when engaged cleanly
• High emotional intelligence—savvy, patient, and tactically aware
• Strong recovery ability—can re-engage effectively after minor inefficiencies
• Dangerous late presence—thrives when allowed to hunt targets
Vulnerabilities
• Transition sticking point—GHD → IHD shift can be delayed or inefficient
• Brief sensory lag during gear change—mind can fall behind body for key strides
• Traffic-dependent risk—inefficient transition in congestion can cost position
• Requires space to fully express—inside or blocked trips reduce effectiveness
• Susceptible to disrupted rhythm—if forced off pattern, efficiency declines
• Split focus risk—external pressure can cause body to outrun mental clarity
Watch For
• Early Race: Is he relaxed and comfortably “ghosting,” or forced into position too soon?
• Mid-Race Setup: Does he have clear outside pathways developing, or is he boxed in?
• The Move: Watch the gear change—clean and fluid = major threat; hesitation = trouble
• Top of the Stretch: If he’s in clear space and fully engaged, he’s one of the most dangerous closers in the race
Kerry’s Quotes
• “He’s the kind that sneaks into the race before you realize he’s there.”
• “You don’t want to see him coming at you at the top of the lane.”
• “It’s all about that gear change—if it’s clean, look out.”
• “Make the hunter the hunted—that’s how you soften him.”
The Puma
Between The Ears
The Puma is a high-rev, fast-cycling colt; this is all emotion, all the time. His teapot is always whistling.
He’s aggressive, he’s edgy, and he wants the fight. This is a horse that doesn’t wait for the race, he comes after it.
That’s his strength… but it’s also the question.
Because he uses a lot of emotional energy, and he doesn’t naturally build in any reprieve. He runs like a horse that’s been taught to give you 100% all the time whether the race calls for it or not.
So now you’re asking… can he sustain that? Can he maintain his sensory efficiency and mind-to-body fluency when the pressure just keeps building?
To his credit, he’s all heart. He’ll run until there’s nothing left. But that kind of effort, especially at this level, can leave you vulnerable late if it’s not managed.
Now here’s where it gets interesting—when he’s forced to settle by the herd… when he can’t just go… it actually helps him. It shortens the amount of time he has to stay in that all-out drive mode late.
And when that happens, he can run downhill and he becomes much more dangerous.
So the key is… does he get that patience? Or does he try to create the race too early?
Especially being drawn near a horse like So Happy, you wonder if he tries to engage before the race even unfolds.
Because if he burns energy early, it’s a long way home.
But if the race makes him wait… now you’ve got a very live horse turning for home.
Strengths
• High-intensity competitive drive—naturally seeks and engages the race
• Strong stalking presence—stays connected and applies pressure to pace
• Deep emotional grit—will fight and sustain effort beyond comfort
• Dangerous when rateable—forced patience enhances late-stage effectiveness
• “Downhill” runner when conserved—becomes more efficient as race compresses
• Responds to herd structure—can improve when external rhythm governs effort
Vulnerabilities
• Overconsumption of emotional energy—lacks natural self-regulation
• No built-in reprieve—runs at maximum effort regardless of race demands
• Sensory efficiency risk under sustained stress—mind-to-body fluency may degrade
• Early engagement risk—can burn fuel before race fully develops
• Highly pace- and environment-dependent—needs external structure to stay efficient
• Potential gate or pre-race emotional escalation—can start the race mentally too early
Watch For
• Pre-Race / Gate Behavior: Is he already keyed up and looking to engage before the break?
• Early Fractions: Is he forcing the issue, or being made to settle within the herd?
• Mid-Race Rhythm: If he’s rating and within himself, he’s improving his chances significantly
• Top of the Stretch: If he’s conserved early—even by circumstance—he can become a serious threat late
Kerry’s Quotes
• “His teapot is always whistling—there’s no off switch.”
• “You love the heart… you worry about the fuel tank.”
• “If the race makes him wait, he gets dangerous.”
• “He doesn’t conserve himself… the herd has to do it for him.”
Full Effort
Between The Ears
Full Effort is exactly what his name suggests… you’re going to get everything he’s got.
This is a gritty, tank-like horse, his movement, his energy, it all comes from a heavy, methodical place. He’s not flashy, he’s not refined… but he’s honest.
He operates from a strong Group Herd Dynamic; very grounded, very workmanlike and when he shifts into his competitive drive, that’s where things get interesting.
Because when he goes, he tries… but his sensory efficiency doesn’t always keep up with his physical effort. You’ll see moments where he gets a little floaty, a little out of sequence… like his body is moving faster than his mind can clear the space ahead.
But here’s what I truly respect about him is that he fights through it.
He doesn’t quit; he doesn’t fold… he sort of navigates his own imperfections in real time. He’ll swerve around those little mental potholes and just keep coming.
And when he does find that rhythm, there’s actually more athleticism in there than you expect. He can reach, extend, and show you something underneath that heavy exterior.
Distance might help him, as he’s the kind that keeps grinding when others start to fade.
But the big question is the environment. First time on dirt, Derby chaos, the noise, the compression… that’s a lot to ask from a horse who already must work hard to stay mentally organized.
Still… you know exactly what you’re getting.
He’s going to show up, he’s going to try, and he’s going to give you everything he has—no pun intended.
Strengths
• Honest, hard-trying competitor—maximum effort every time
• Strong foundational GHD—grounded, steady, and emotionally durable
• High internal grit—pushes through inefficiencies and adversity
• Ability to “outrun” his own imperfections and stay engaged
• Hidden athletic upside—can extend and reach when rhythm is found
• Distance-friendly mindset—keeps grinding as others begin to fade
Vulnerabilities
• Sensory inefficiency under pressure—mind-to-body fluency can lag
• Susceptible to sequencing disruptions—can become floaty or out of sync
• Heavy energy distribution—requires more effort to achieve efficiency
• Environmentally sensitive—Derby chaos may amplify existing inefficiencies
• Surface unknown—first-time dirt adds another layer of unpredictability
• Needs time and space to organize—rapid-fire race dynamics may overwhelm
Watch For
• Early Race / Surface Adaptation: How comfortable does he look over the dirt? Smooth vs. labored motion will tell the story
• Mid-Race Rhythm: Is he staying within himself, or beginning to get floaty and out of sequence?
• Traffic & Compression: Does he maintain direction and intent, or struggle to process the environment?
• Late Stretch: If he’s still grinding forward while others fade, he could pick up pieces simply through effort
Kerry’s Quotes
• “He’s not pretty… but he’s honest.”
• “He kind of runs like a tank—but there’s something underneath there.”
• “He outruns his own mistakes sometimes.”
• “You may not pick him… but you respect him.”
About Kerry M. Thomas
Kerry M. Thomas is the founder of Herd Dynamic Profiling™ and Sensory Soundness™, pioneering frameworks that interpret equine performance through the lens of behavioral science, emotional processing, and environmental awareness.
An accredited ethologist through the Royal Dutch Equestrian Federation (KNHS), Kerry’s work bridges the gap between traditional horsemanship and modern performance insight, offering a deeper understanding of how horses think, respond, and compete under competitive pressure.
Over the past decade plus, his “Between The Ears” styled analysis and The Competitor’s Edge reports have provided a unique psychological perspective within Thoroughbred racing, focusing not on what a horse has done, but how they are wired to perform when it matters most.
His approach is grounded in a simple but powerful idea:
“The operating system runs the machine.”
Kerry continues to work with clients across racing, sport horse disciplines, and equine development, offering private evaluations, clinics, and educational programs built around the horse’s lived experience.
To explore more of Kerry’s work, visit:
For a deeper dive into his philosophy and field insights, his latest book:
Herd Wired: In Pursuit of Discovery, offers a compelling look into the emotional and psychological world of the horse, blending real-world experience with thought-provoking perspective.
"Herd Wired is a foundational work on equine behavior and herd dynamics, exploring how horses process environment, pressure, and social structure at a neurological and emotional level. Its is increasingly used as a reference by educators, professionals, and welfare-focused organizations seeking a deeper understanding of the horse beyond surface behavior."
Herd Wired: In Pursuit of Discovery A Field Companion for a Journey Through the Mind of the Horse.
This is your invitation into the unseen world— A legacy work shaped by decades in the field, from studying wild herds across the globe to profiling elite performance horses around the world, where emotional maps, instinctive behavior, and herd dynamics come alive.
A book for the curious, the devoted, and the soul-searchers. Herd Wired offers a bridge between the natural herd dynamic and the domesticated world. This book explores how: The operating system runs the machine, affecting everything from instinctive reactions to learned intelligence Emotional presence bridges the gap between the natural herd dynamic and the domesticated world. Sensory Soundness™ becomes a core language for understanding what a horse truly feels and why they act as they do.
Inside these pages, you'll discover: Unfiltered field notes and philosophies never before shared Key insights from real-world case studies from around the globe. Emotional awareness grounded in sensory and herd wisdom. Practical tools woven into immersive storytelling.
Whether you're a performance rider, thoughtful caretaker, or captivated by animal consciousness, Herd Wired opens a doorway into perception, presence, and partnership. Harness what lies beneath every behavior and forge a legacy of connection that lasts far beyond the finish line.
🐎 🐎🐎💕